2011 年 08 月 12
日 06:24 AM
China should let its currency rise. Such has been the desperate, decade-long complaint from the
US and its politicians. China’s manipulation of its currency is a popular scapegoat both for the
financial crisis and for the extinction of US manufacturing.
An appreciation is plainly in China’s urgent interests. And the rest of the world, including the US,
is beginning to grasp that it has reason to fear the consequences if it does. On Wednesday and
Thursday of this week, China’s authorities at one point allowed the renminbi to appreciate against
the dollar by a greater percentage than in any two-day period since its managed rise first started in
2005. These moves remain tiny; but they combine with official criticism of the US, a growing
need to combat Chinese inflation and much Chinese commentary favouring a change of policy to
suggest that the renminbi may soon be allowed to take flight. A widening of its trading bands
might be a first incremental step.
Unlike the first managed appreciation, from 2005 to 2008, the current “appreciation” has done
nothing to help domestic inflation. By tying to the dollar, a currency sinking like a stone, the
renminbi has depreciated against all currencies on a trade-weighted basis, JPMorgan data show. A
drastic shift is needed. That will mean exporting its inflation. It also means buying fewer
treasuries, or even selling some, which would in turn counteract any efforts at “quantitative
easing” – buying bonds to keep US yields low.
The dollar would probably tumble, and treasury yields rise. Other effects are less clear. The
Australian dollar, long a proxy for Chinese growth, might suffer if China slows, as might other
commodity-driven currencies but much depends on China’s own decisions.
China’s external reserves are enough, even at current prices, to buy all the gold ever produced. It
will be hard to shift policy without causing a big displacement elsewhere in the world. Correcting
this global imbalance may be necessary but it will not be easy.
Lex
专栏：美国担心人民币升值？
——
中国应该让人民币升值
美国及其政界人士为此声嘶力竭地抱怨了 10 年。从金融危机
“
”
到美国制造业的衰亡， 中国操纵人民币汇率 都是热门的替罪羊。
人民币升值显然符合中国的利益。而包括美国在内的世界其它国家正开始意识到，它们有
理由担心人民币升值的后果。本周三和周四，中国官方一度允许人民币兑美元汇率以较大
幅度上涨，涨幅超过 2005 年中国启动汇改以来任何一个两天期间。这些升值步伐仍是微
小的；但它们与中国官方对美国的批评、中国日需迫切需要遏制通胀、以及中国近期出现
的大量支持改变政策的言论相结合，似乎表明人民币不久可能获准大幅走高。扩大其交易
区间也许是第一个渐进步骤。
与 2005 年至 2008
“
”
年第一轮有管理的升值不同，当前这一轮 升值 迄今无助于遏制国内
通胀。摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据显示，与币值直线下跌的美元挂钩意味着，人民币在贸
易加权基础上兑所有货币都贬值了。中国需要大幅度地转变做法。那将意味着输入中国的
“
”
通胀。那还将意味着减少购买美国国债，甚至减持美国国债，从而抵消 定量宽松 （美国
政府买入国债以压低其收益率）的努力。
美元很可能大幅走低，美国国债收益率很可能上升。其它效应则不那么明确。澳大利亚元
长期是中国经济增长的一个指标，如果中国增长放缓，澳元以及由大宗商品推动的其它