percent, the value of the investment will on average fall 10 percent as well). An investment with
beta of 2 will be twice as risky as the market (so when the market falls 10 percent, the value of the
investment will on average fall 20 percent).
CAPM
Once the consultant has determined the beta of a proposed investment, he can use the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to calculate the appropriate discount rate (r):
The risk-free rate of return is the return the company could receive by making a risk-free
investment (for example, by investing in U.S. Treasury bills). The market rate of return is the
return the company could receive by investing in a well-diversified portfolio of stocks (for
example, S&P 500).
Example: Shen, Inc., a coal producer, is considering investing in a new venture that would
manufacture and market carbon filters. Shen's chief financial officer, Apelbaum, wants to calculate
the NPV of the proposed venture in order to determine whether the company should make the
investment. After studying the riskiness of the proposed venture, Apelbaum determines that the
beta of the investment is 1.5. A U.S. Treasury note of comparable maturity currently yields 7
percent, while the return on the S&P 500 stock index is 12 percent. Therefore, the discount rate
Apelbaum will use when calculating the NPV of the investment will be:
Although this is an overly simplified discussion of how consultants calculate discount rate to use
in their cash-flow analysis, it does give you an overview of how consultants incorporate the notion
of an investment's market to select the appropriate discount rate.
Porter's Five Forces
Developed by Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter in his book Competitive
Strategy, the Porter's Five Forces framework helps determine the attractiveness of an industry.
Before any company expands into new markets, divests product lines, acquires new businesses, or
sells divisions, it should ask itself, "Is the industry we're entering or exiting attractive?" By using
Porter's Five Forces, a company can begin to develop a thoughtful answer. Consultants frequently
utilize Porter's Five Forces as a starting point to help companies evaluate industry attractiveness.
Take, for example, entry into the copy store market (like Kinko's). How attractive is the copy store
market?
Potential entrants: What is the threat of new entrants into the market? Copy stores are not very
expensive to open - you can conceivably open a copy store with one copier and one employee.
Therefore, barriers to entry are low, so there's a high risk of potential new entrants.
Buyer power: How much bargaining power do buyers have? Copy store customers are relatively
price sensitive. Between the choice of a copy store that charges 5 cents a copy and a store that
charges 6 cents a copy, buyers will usually head for the cheaper store. Because copy stores are
common, buyers have the leverage to bargain with copy store owners on large print jobs,
threatening to take their business elsewhere. The only mitigating factors are location and hours.
On the other hand, price is not the only factor. Copy stores that are willing to stay open 24 hours
may be able to charge a premium, and customers may simply patronize the copy store closest to