Second, S&P apparently gave little or no weight to the unique role the US plays in the global
economy. The US is the world’s largest, most productive economy and the dollar remains the
global reserve currency. The only possible alternative, the euro, is structurally flawed and is in
what may turn out to be an existential crisis. Issuing its own currency means the US can settle its
debts by printing more money if need be, so there is absolutely no question of its ability to pay.
Third, the market says S&P is wrong. The US enjoys among the lowest interest rates in its history
coincident with the highest deficits and a daunting long-term fiscal outlook. Yet when investors
are looking for safe assets, they buy Treasuries. The US is borrowing at lower long-term rates than
it did when it was running a budget surplus. In the 2008 crisis, investors flocked to Treasuries and
the dollar because they sought the safest, most creditworthy assets in the world. S&P seems not to
have noticed this.
The agency’s actions pose unpredictable and dangerous risks to the global economy. As Warren
Buffett has noted, fear is contagious and spreads quickly; confidence is fragile and only returns
gradually and over time. S&P’s actions can only undermine weak confidence and raise
uncertainty. It has created what Keynes called irreducible uncertainty. We have no idea of the
consequences of S&P deciding the risk-free assets issued by the country that occupies a unique
place in the global economy may not be risk free after all.
One consequence we can all hope for is that Congress ends the oligopoly of Nationally
Recognised Statistical Ratings Organisations before they contribute to or ignite another financial
crisis. Even S&P agrees, stating to its credit that the regulatory reliance on ratings by NRSROs
should end. By all means, let’s have S&P, Moody's and Fitch opine about creditworthiness. But
let’s have them do it in a free competitive market and not via a legally-sanctioned oligopoly which
effectively regulates without oversight or consequence.
Bill Miller is chief investment officer of Legg Mason Capital Management
标普犯下大错
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作者:美盛资产管理公司首席投资官 比尔 米勒 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)将美国主权债务评级从 AAA 下调至 AA+,是一个草率、错误
而又危险的举动。
说的轻一点,对于此举可能给脆弱的全球金融体系造成的后果,标普表现出了惊人的无
知与漠视。这家评级机构所选择的时机,是在美国股市经历了自 2008 年以来最糟糕的一
周之后。那一周,不仅股市大跌,而且欧洲债务危机也出现了危险的升级。标普此举完全
不必要,时机的选择也糟糕透顶。更可怕的是,其推理拙劣,而给全球金融体系所造成的
结果(无论短期还是长期)是难以预测的。
以盈利为目的的私有公司却拥有法律认可的特殊地位,即处于金融体系的核心、发挥准监
管机构的职能,这令人无法接受。这些准监管机构权势熏天,他们的意见可以决定金融机
构可持有何种证券、需要多少资本金、金融体系中的每个成员的借款成本应该是多少,而
且所有这些依据的都是一些隐秘的考量,无需加以解释说明。
这些机构给出的具有灾难性缺陷的评级,正是 2008 年金融危机的罪魁祸首,而标普这次
的行为有可能会再次引发混乱,因为它给美国扮演全球金融体系关键角色的能力带来了
不确定性。