一些货币可能走低,但很多事取决于中国自己的决策。
即便按当前价格计算,中国的外汇储备也足够买下人类有史以来开采的全部黄金。要转变
政策而不致对世界其它地方产生重大冲击,是很难的。纠正这种全球失衡也许是必要的,
但它不会是一件易事。
2011 年 08 月 11
日 06:56 AM
A precipitate, wrong and dangerous decision
The downgrade by Standard & Poor’s of US sovereign debt, from triple A to double A plus, was
precipitate, wrong and dangerous.
At best, S&P showed a stunning ignorance and disregard for the potential consequences on a
fragile global financial system. The rating agency chose to take this action after the worst week in
US equity markets since 2008, a week which not only saw stocks fall sharply, but which also
witnessed a dangerous escalation in the European debt crisis. The action was wholly unnecessary
and the timing could not have been worse. Compounding this, the reasoning was poor and
consequences, both short and long term, for the global financial system unpredictable.
It is unacceptable that privately owned, for-profit companies should have special, legally
sanctioned status at the heart of the financial system to function as quasi-regulatory authorities
whose opinions can determine what securities financial institutions can hold, how much capital
they need, what the borrowing costs of every member of the system will be, all based on secret
deliberations with no accountability.
The disastrously flawed ratings of these agencies were at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis and
S&P’s action threatens to cause mayhem again by creating uncertainty about the ability of the US
to function in its critical role in the financial system.
There was no need for S&P to rush to judgment just days after a bruising political battle had
secured a bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling through the next election cycle and which
initiated a process to begin to cut spending and address the nation’s long-term fiscal imbalances.
Neither Fitch nor Moody’s saw any need to do so, indeed, Moody’s indicated that it saw the
agreement as “a turning point in fiscal policy” and declared that a downgrade would be
“premature”.
The decision is also wrong. First, it is incredible that S&P should think the US is less creditworthy
now than two weeks ago, when an agreement to raise the debt ceiling had not been reached, both
parties appeared intransigent and contingency plans were being considered that included
prioritising payments or even declaring the debt ceiling null and void. In any event, an agreement
was reached that assures the ability of the US to fund its operations through the next election and
initiated a process to tackle the nation’s long-standing fiscal imbalances.
The debate on the debt ceiling, moreover, concentrated public attention on the deep fiscal
imbalances in the US and changed the governing priorities to include steps to address the
unsustainable trajectory of government spending. Now the debate is centred on whether revenue
enhancement is needed. This is progress and should have counted for, not against, the triple A
rating.